The ObamaCare decision: How it could shape the 2012 election - The Week

The ObamaCare decision: How it could shape the 2012 election - The Week
 The Supreme Court concluded three days of public hearings on President Obama's health-care overhaul on Wednesday, and legal analysts say it looks like the court's conservative majority might strike down the law's requirement that all Americans buy insurance. That provision is considered the cornerstone of ObamaCare — without it, the signature domestic policy achievement of Obama's first term could collapse. What would such a setback do to Obama's chances of winning a second term? Here, four theories:

1. Counterintuitively, a loss in court would be a political win for Obama
If the Supreme Court strikes down ObamaCare, it "will be the best thing that ever happened to the Democratic Party," Democratic strategist James Carville tells CNN. Health-care costs would continue to "escalate unbelievably," and "the Democrats are going to say — and it is completely justified: 'We tried, we did something, go see a 5-4 Supreme Court majority.'" Thanks to a partisan decision by conservative justices, Republicans will "own the health-care system," warts and all, and that will be a huge disadvantage for them in November.

2. Actually, this would cripple Obama's hope of re-election
"Spinning a loss as a win," says Glenn Thrush at Politico, "is a little like praising the tsunami because you had forgotten to water your houseplants." Any "tactical advantage a SCOTUS loss would confer on Obama and the Democrats would be more than offset by the jolt of enthusiasm it gives to the Republican base." Not only that, but Obama and Co. would wind up with nothing to show for the 18-month-long battle over health-care reform, fueling critics who already deride the whole drama as a "colossal time-suck" that wasted political capital that "could have been better spent on the economy and jobs."